According to Ethan Mollick on Twitter, an independent extension of METR’s time-horizon analysis applied to offensive cybersecurity finds a 5.7-month capability doubling time, with frontier models achieving 50% success on tasks that take human experts 10.5 hours. As reported by Ethan Mollick, this mirrors METR’s published timelines and uses real human expert timing data, indicating rapid progress in automated vulnerability discovery and exploitation. According to Ethan Mollick, these findings imply accelerating ROI for red teaming, SOC automation, and pentest augmentation tools, while raising urgent needs for defensive AI investments such as automated patch prioritization and continuous adversarial simulation. As reported by Ethan Mollick, vendors can productize model-in-the-loop workflows for exploit development triage, while enterprises should update risk models and procurement to account for sub-year model capability doubling.